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Handicap Horse Races Using Speed Adjusted by Class and Pace

Bet on a horse race using only speed numbers and you will soon learn that figs are the biggest and most important betting factor in horse racing. Thanks to standardization and accuracy, speed numbers work for evaluating horses as well as any factor, but this does not mean that you can win with them. On the other hand, if you know how to use them, it’s a good place to start.

Let’s say you’re looking at a $20,000 race to determine which horse is the fastest based on your odds. At first glance it looks like 1 has the most speed because adding her speed numbers for her last three races gives her the highest total in the race. He is the morning line favorite and seems to be the logical choice to win.

However, if you take the time to dig deeper into the competition and make some adjustments to those values, you may find a good price winner. For example, 2 is a horse that jumps in class. Although the 2 has slower speed numbers, it faced tough competition and faster speeds in each of its races. The question is, do her speed totals in the last three races clearly reflect her ability compared to the 1?

How should you adjust the speed numbers if it faces tough competition? To the best of my knowledge, there is no easy-to-use, clearly defined method for adjusting speed ratios based on step counts. It may seem like bad news at first, but it actually works in your favor. Because no one has found a simple formula, handicappers who use speed numbers don’t try to adjust them by grade or pace.

However, you can choose the races you want to develop your numbers for and then start drawing them. Let’s say you’re going to develop your own method for adjusting these step counts and SFs. You must first block any claim competition and then download the maps. Look at each winner and compare her total SF to her speed numbers in her last three races. After 20 or so races you will begin to understand how speed and pace numbers work together and how to handle a horse that may not seem very capable, based on its SF totals, but because of the speed advantage will surprise you.

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