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Good News for Gold

If you have the chance to camp near an old gold or silver mine, take it. I did years ago. Not only is it a great experience, but it has made me a better metals investor.

Why? Well, there’s nothing like seeing long-dead, abandoned mine workings with your own eyes. You know, quite frankly, that someone decades ago made the best guess about supply and demand — and guessed wrong.

This has been the case in recent years, with the price of gold declining since 2011.

But that is about to change…

My camping trip was a very quick one. I was in Reno for a conference. A friend of mine had a topo map of some old mines in the high desert of the Santa Rosa Mountains, about four hours north.

We drove up, camped in the valley, and the next morning, hiked up a steep hill to a small plateau. There we found the entrance to the mine (closed with dynamite), an old wooden hut and other ruined remains of the operation.

We also saw the mine’s “power plant”: a long-legged skeleton of a Model T, sitting on blocks. Instead of wheels, huge transmission arch bolts were attached to its axles!

It’s a long way in terms of time and technology from that old mine to the large scale industrial gold mines in northern Nevada today.

But long multi-decade cycles of supply and demand, booms and busts, remain. And while few outside the industry are still talking about it, the seeds of the next boom are already in the air.

The reason is related to global production.

Peak Gold?

According to industry owners, top investment bankers and others, 2015 will be the highest year of gold production in the world.

If you believe the common sense idea that there is more supply at lower prices, then that is bad news.

The good news? The same sources say that production will decrease significantly in 2016 and beyond.

Nevada gold mining statistics tell a small part of the story.

Last month, the state’s mining division updated its overall gold production statistics for 2014: It fell to 4.9 million ounces, a 27-year low.

But here’s the bigger trend: Nevada’s total production actually peaked in 1998 at about 9 million ounces. Since then, gold production has declined in 12 of the last 17 years.

What’s going on? In short, the areas with the highest ore have all been properly mined. And since Nevada accounts for the lion’s share of U.S. gold production, U.S. production data tells a similar story.

The statistics from Australia and South Africa are very similar. Gold production in South Africa peaked in the 1970s. Australia took the lead in 1997.

For a long time, production from China and Russia filled a gap.

But with gold prices down, more mines closing and gold mining companies shrewdly shying away from new projects, the “production cliff” (as some analysts call it) is finally at our doorstep…

  • Goldman Sachs, in a March report, finds that there are only “20 years of known mined gold reserves” left in the world. The bank has reported fewer and fewer new gold deposit discoveries since 1995.

  • Earlier this month, analysts at the National Bank of Canada told The Financial Post, “It’s not a matter of whether or not production will happen. It’s really a matter of how companies respond.” According to the bank, world gold production will decline significantly in the next few years.

  • Also, an analyst at Grant Thornton told AustraliaMining.com that “2015 will be the peak of world gold production.”

A Hidden Gold Stamp

So, if everything is like that, you say, why haven’t we seen higher prices yet?

A big reason is the impact of “junk gold” on the world market. All of them earrings, gloves and dental fillings constitute a major source of supply – about 36% in 2011 and 2012.

But that resource is also constantly drying up. In 2014, only 28% of the world’s gold supply came from recycled sources. The World Gold Council stated that gold supply has returned to the lowest level since 2007.

Those trends remain in 2015. The group says gold supply fell 3% again, and another 8% in the first two quarters of the year (on a year-on-year basis).

Shortage of supply will lead to higher prices

Here’s the bottom line: It takes time for new information to filter its way into any market. Gold price boom and bust? It’s old news by now, fully discounted in the price of the metal and its workers.

But what is it that most people still don’t understand (and would be less likely to believe if you told them)? The “production rock” is the gold according to the calculation. Look for this to be a major new catalyst for gold prices in the coming quarters as the new data sets the trend.

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